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How Our Predictions Work
What data is included?
We use your past year of running data to produce the current prediction. However, you can scroll through time to see your predictions across multiple years.
How the predictions are calculated?
The predictions are primarily based on how quickly you ran during training. As you continue to run faster, the predictions will also get faster. However, average pace is only a small component of the prediction, so feel free to take your easy days easy. Learn more about how our methods work here.
Altitude Training
We assume you will be racing at sea-level, and we apply an altitude correction to the original prediction if you have been training at higher elevations.
Sorry treadmill runners 😭
Only GPS-tracked runs are used in this predictor. If you are primarily a treadmill runner, this version of the tool won't work for you.
Select a data point to view weekly statistics
Marathon Cohort Time
How does this chart work?
About the Cohorts Chart
The "Cohorts" chart visualizes the distribution of a selected training metric (like "Best 5k" or "Weekly Mileage") for a group of runners who achieved a marathon time similar to your goal.
Data Source
Marathon data comes from fast course on good-condition days (e.g., 2022 Chicago Marathon). Training statistics are computed from athletes' recorded activities. Note that not all althetes record all activities, which may skew mileage statistics.
Training Data Period
The training statistics considered are from the 2 months leading up to their respective marathon races.
Your Performance Line
The vertical dashed line on the chart represents your performance for the selected training metric, allowing you to see where you stand in comparison to this cohort. If you are not logged in, we don't have your data, so we place the dashed line roughly at the most common value for the cohort.
Tour Title
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