How Our Predictions Work
Our method first estimates your marathon time, then calculates your potential times for shorter distances (similar to Jack Daniels' VDOT system).
It's common for folks who have not had long training runs or large training volume to get appropriately slow marathon estimates but inappropriately slow estimates for shorter distances (e.g., 5k)—if this is you, sorry, we're working on fixing this!
Finally, we are using GPS-tracked runs for this predictor, so if you are primarily a treadmill runner, this version of the tool won't work for you.
Learn more about how our methods work here.
Select a data point to view weekly statistics
Marathon Cohort Time
How does this chart work?
About the Cohorts Chart
The "Cohorts" chart visualizes the distribution of a selected training metric (like "Best 5k" or "Weekly Mileage") for a group of runners who achieved a marathon time similar to your goal.
The training data considered is from the 2 months leading up to their respective marathon races.
The vertical dashed line on the chart represents your performance for the selected training metric, allowing you to see where you stand in comparison to this cohort. If you are not logged in, we don't have your data, so we place the dashed line roughly at the most common value for the cohort.
By exploring different features, you can gain insights into various aspects of training that correlate with your desired marathon outcome.
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